Monday, April 13, 2026
51 articles covering surgical and transcatheter valve therapies, trials, regulation, and market analysis.
Executive Summary
Two major CMS coverage decisions are in motion today — one revisiting TAVR national coverage and another opening a new pathway for transcatheter tricuspid valve replacement — signaling a pivotal regulatory moment for structural heart. A large single-center study of over 5,200 TAVR patients quantifies the sobering early-mortality toll of vascular access complications, while editorials in the European Heart Journal and Annals of Thoracic Surgery challenge the field to confront lifetime valve management and the economic incentives driving TAVR expansion into younger patients. For the clinical audience: today's digest sits at the intersection of regulatory, economic, and outcomes science. CMS has opened a reconsideration of the TAVR National Coverage Determination (CAG-00430R2) and initiated a new NCA for transcatheter tricuspid valve replacement (CAG-00467N) — the latter representing the first formal US coverage pathway for TTVR, a signal that the TRISCEND II and TRILUMINATE evidence base is being taken seriously at the federal level. Meanwhile, a 5,230-patient TAVR vascular complication analysis provides granular data on a problem that remains underappreciated as TAVR moves downstream. And provocative commentaries from the Annals of Thoracic Surgery force the profession to reckon with the economic forces pushing transcatheter therapies ahead of the evidence in younger populations — a concern we've been tracking in this newsletter and one that sits squarely within the ongoing tension between the 2020 ACC/AHA and 2025 ESC/EACTS guidelines on age thresholds.
Key Points
- •Two major CMS coverage decisions are in motion today — one revisiting TAVR national coverage and another opening a new pathway for transcatheter tricuspid valve replacement — signaling a pivotal regulatory moment for structural heart. A large single-center study of over 5,200 TAVR patients quantifie
- •For the clinical audience: today's digest sits at the intersection of regulatory, economic, and outcomes science. CMS has opened a reconsideration of the TAVR National Coverage Determination (CAG-00430R2) and initiated a new NCA for transcatheter tricuspid valve replacement (CAG-00467N) — the latter
The Valve Wire Weekly
Week ending 2026-04-11

The Valve Wire Weekly - 2026-04-11
2026-04-11 · 23:13
Weekly podcast covering transcatheter valve technology developments for the week ending 2026-04-11.
Aortic Valve (TAVR/TAVI)
Vascular Access Complications After TAVR: The Early Price of a "Minimally Invasive" Procedure
[NOTABLE] Mesar et al. present a retrospective analysis of 5,230 transfemoral TAVR patients from a single high-volume center, stratifying outcomes by complication type. Vascular complications occurred in 2.9% (n=154), but their impact was disproportionate: in-hospital mortality was 7.8% vs. 0.2% in uncomplicated cases, and propensity-matched 30-day mortality was four-fold higher (OR 4.02, 95% CI 1.98–8.18). Among vascular complications, 36% involved intraoperative bleeding requiring intervention and 27% had limb ischemia or dissection. Reassuringly, patients who survived the early postoperative period had comparable 5-year survival (51.1% vs. 50.9%) — suggesting the damage is front-loaded but not permanently prognostic.
Editorial perspective: This study is a powerful reminder that "low-risk TAVR" is not "no-risk TAVR." A 2.9% vascular complication rate in 2026 is notable at a high-volume center and may understate real-world rates at lower-volume sites. As the field expands TAVR to younger patients — where the 2025 ESC guidelines now recommend TAVR as primary therapy at age ≥70 with tricuspid anatomy and transfemoral access — the absolute number of patients experiencing these devastating early complications will increase. The finding that vascular complications essentially convert TAVR into a high-risk procedure (7.8% in-hospital mortality) should give pause to those who frame the TAVR-vs-SAVR conversation purely in terms of procedural mortality averages. Study limitations include single-center design, retrospective analysis, and the inherent selection bias of propensity matching in a small complication cohort. These data complement the recent multicenter registry showing plug-based vascular closure devices achieving 99.8% immediate hemostasis rates — technology matters at the access site.
Lifetime Valve Management and the Economics of TAVR Expansion
Mainali and Pope contribute an editorial in the Annals of Thoracic Surgery that directly confronts the economic forces driving TAVR adoption in younger patients. While the abstract is not available, the title alone signals a critical conversation the field needs to have: when hospitals, device manufacturers, and proceduralists all benefit financially from expanding transcatheter volume, is the patient's lifetime valve management strategy receiving adequate weight in decision-making?
Editorial perspective: This commentary arrives at a moment of genuine guideline tension. The 2025 ESC guidelines lowered the TAVI-preferred threshold to age 70 (from the ACC/AHA's 80), based partly on the DEDICATE trial and medium-term durability data. But as our reference literature documents, THV explantation carries 12–17% mortality, TAV-in-SAV risks patient-prosthesis mismatch, and redo-TAVR — while growing (84% of reinterventions) — has limited long-term data. The critical voices of Bowdish, Badhwar, and others who have warned about therapies outpacing evidence deserve amplification here. The economic analysis matters because it exposes a misalignment: the financial incentive is to do the first TAVR, but the clinical responsibility extends across the patient's lifetime. This editorial should be required reading for Heart Teams.
Type A Dissection After TAVI: Prevention and Management
Zheng and Cheng publish a commentary in the International Journal of Cardiology on preventing and managing type A aortic dissection after TAVI. While rare, this catastrophic complication merits attention as TAVI volumes grow and patient populations evolve. The ascending aorta undergoes significant mechanical stress during valve deployment, and pre-existing aortopathy — particularly relevant in bicuspid aortic valve patients — may elevate risk. Both guidelines classify BAV TAVI as IIb, and aortic dilation requiring surgery favors SAVR.
Anomalous Left Circumflex Artery: A Hidden Hazard in Valve Interventions
Furukawa et al. present a narrative review in the Annals of Thoracic Surgery synthesizing 45 publications on anomalous origin of the left circumflex artery (AOLCX) and its implications for both surgical and transcatheter valve interventions. The retro-aortic course puts the vessel at risk during TAVR (via compression or ostial occlusion) and surgery (via deep sutures). The authors emphasize pre-procedural CT angiography and Heart Team–based procedure selection — particularly relevant as TAVR expands to lower-risk, anatomically complex patients where such variants may be encountered more frequently.
Surgical Rescue: Over-Expanded THV in a Calcified, Aneurysmatic Annulus
Belluschi et al. report in the European Heart Journal on the surgical implantation of an over-expanded transcatheter heart valve as a rescue strategy for a patient with a calcified and aneurysmatic annulus. While details are limited (no abstract), this case illustrates the creative hybrid approaches required when standard surgical or transcatheter pathways are inadequate — and underscores why lifetime valve management planning at the index procedure is now emphasized in the 2025 ESC guidelines.
NCA - Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) (CAG-00430R2) - Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services | CMS (.gov)
NCA - Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) (CAG-00430R2) Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services | CMS (.gov)
The Impact of Vascular Access Complications in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.
BACKGROUND: Vascular complications remain a significant concern in transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). AIMS: Determine the incidence of vascular complications following TAVR and evaluate their impact on short- and long-term clinical outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational analysis of patients undergoing transfemoral TAVR at a single institution. Patients were stratified into three groups: Group 0 (no perioperative complications), Group 1 (vascular complications), and Group 2 (non-vascular complications). The primary outcome was early- and late-mortality. Propensity score matching was performed to compare outcomes between Group 0 and Group 1. RESULTS: Among 5230 patients, 4391 (84.0%) were in Group 0, 154 (2.9%) in Group 1, and 685 (13.1%) in Group 2. In Group 1, 36.4% experienced intraoperative bleeding requiring intervention, 27.3% had intraoperative limb ischemia or dissection, and 16.2% required postoperative takeback for limb ischemia. In-hospital mortality was 12/154 (7.8%) in Group 1, compared with 7/4391 (0.2%) in Group 0 and 45/685 (6.6%) in Group 2 (p < 0.001). Thirty-day mortality was 16/154 (10.4%) in Group 1 versus 117/4391 (2.7%) in Group 0 and 70/685 (10.2%) in Group 2 (p < 0.001). Propensity-matched analysis showed Group 1 had fourfold higher 30-day mortality (OR 4.02, 95% CI 1.98-8.18, p < 0.001). One-year mortality was 29/148 (19.6%) for Group 1 compared with 72/592 (12.2%) for Group 0, with 5-year survival similar between groups (Group 1: 51.1%, Group 0: 50.9%, log-rank p = 0.214), while unmatched Group 2 had 43.1% 5-year survival. CONCLUSION: While vascular complications after TAVR are uncommon, they are linked to substantially worse early outcomes, whereas long-term survival among patients who survive the initial postoperative period remains comparable, emphasizing the critical impact during the early phase.
Contribution of Non-Sustained Ventricular Tachycardia to the Primary Prevention of Sudden Cardiac Death - Validation of Current Japanese Circulation Society / Japanese Heart Rhythm Society Guideline Recommendations in the Nippon Storm Study.
BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) in Japanese patients receiving implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) for primary prevention remains unclear. This study aimed to verify the prognostic value of NSVT as recommended in the 2018 Japanese Circulation Society guideline. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed 638 patients with structural heart disease who received an ICD or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator for primary prevention in the Nippon Storm Study. Analysis 1 (n=429) evaluated the association between NSVT history and predefined endpoints in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) or non-ischemic heart disease (non-IHD) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Analysis 2 (n=357) assessed the prognostic impact of NSVT documented by Holter electrocardiography across 2 subgroups: Subgroup 1, IHD and non-IHD; and Subgroup 2, other cardiac diagnoses. Endpoints included appropriate ICD therapy, electrical storm, ventricular fibrillation (VF), shock therapy, and mortality. In Analysis 1, a history of NSVT was not significantly associated with appropriate ICD therapy or other major adverse outcomes. In Analysis 2, Holter-documented NSVT was independently associated only with appropriate ICD therapy (hazard ratio [HR] 1.82; 95% confidence interval 1.04-3.18; P=0.035). This association was significant in Subgroup 2, but not in Subgroup 1. CONCLUSIONS: NSVT was modestly associated (HR 1.82) with appropriate ICD therapy but not with VF or mortality, suggesting reconsideration of its clinical role.
Surgical vs Transcatheter
Building the Hybrid Mindset: Transcatheter Training for Surgical Residents
Zancanaro and Danesi contribute an editorial perspective in the European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery on developing transcatheter skills during cardiac surgery residency. The subtitle — "Building the Hybrid Mindset without Losing the Craft" — captures the central tension. As the structural heart field increasingly demands operators fluent in both open and catheter-based techniques, training programs must evolve. The risk, as the authors implicitly acknowledge, is that surgical volume erosion from TAVR and TEER expansion could undermine the very surgical training pipeline needed to manage complications, perform complex reoperations, and treat patients who remain surgical candidates by all guideline criteria.
Editorial perspective: This training question has direct clinical implications. If the next generation of cardiac surgeons lacks open aortic valve replacement volume because TAVR has captured the 70+ population (ESC) or the 80+ population (ACC/AHA), who performs the SAVR in 55-year-olds with bicuspid valves? Who explants the failing TAVR? The field must solve this simultaneously — expanding transcatheter competency without hollowing out surgical expertise.
Anomalous Left Circumflex Artery in Valve Interventions: Surgical and Transcatheter Challenges.
BACKGROUND: Anomalous origin of the left circumflex coronary artery (AOLCX) following a retro-aortic course is at risk of compression during valve interventions. Although typically benign, iatrogenic injury can cause catastrophic ischemia. As transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) expands to lower-risk populations, understanding mechanisms of injury in both surgical and transcatheter settings is crucial. METHODS: A narrative review was performed focusing on anatomical risks, injury mechanisms, and management of AOLCX. Forty-five relevant publications were synthesized to integrate technical and anatomical evidence. RESULTS: Left circumflex artery compromise is determined by the vessel's proximity to the aortic and mitral annuli. In surgery, deep sutures or prosthetic rings are the primary causes. In TAVR, mechanisms involve retro-aortic compression and ostial occlusion, necessitating pre-procedural assessment of coronary height, sinus dimensions, calcification, and annular proximity. Preventive strategies include surgical mobilization, prophylactic bypass, and guidewire protection. Bailout strategies include bypass and emergency stenting. For aortic stenosis, procedure selection between surgery and TAVR should be individualized based on age, calcification and anatomical metrics. Late complications such as delayed coronary obstruction necessitate longitudinal surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-procedural computed tomography angiography is essential to quantify anatomical risk. A Heart Team approach is required to select the optimal intervention and implement mechanism-specific protection. Long-term clinical and imaging surveillance is warranted to prevent both acute and delayed left circumflex artery compromise.
Mitral Valve (Repair & Replacement)
Meta-analysis: Mitral TEER vs Medical Therapy
TMVR Registry: Annular Dimensions and Mortality
OCEAN-Mitral Registry: M-TEER in LVAD Candidates
Tricuspid Valve (Repair & Replacement)
NCA - Transcatheter Tricuspid Valve Replacement (TTVR) (CAG-00467N) - Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services | CMS (.gov)
NCA - Transcatheter Tricuspid Valve Replacement (TTVR) (CAG-00467N) Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services | CMS (.gov)
Clinical Trials Update
Aortic Valve Trials
- NCT07278310 — STAR Trial (Siegel TAVR)
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 1,025 | Sponsor: MiRus
- Evaluating a novel Siegel TAVR device in patients with symptomatic severe AS. A new entrant to the competitive TAVR landscape.
- NCT07194265 — DurAVR Pivotal Trial
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 1,650 | Sponsor: Anteris Technologies
- Head-to-head comparison of DurAVR against SAPIEN and Evolut series. One of the largest ongoing device-vs-device TAVR trials.
- NCT05712161 — DurAVR Early Feasibility Study
- Status: Active, not recruiting | Enrollment: 15 | Sponsor: Anteris Technologies
- Completed enrollment; safety and feasibility data expected.
- NCT07082426 — Abbott Balloon-Expandable TAVI First-in-Human
- Status: Active, not recruiting | Enrollment: 8 | Sponsor: Abbott Medical Devices
- Abbott's entry into the balloon-expandable TAVI space — directly challenging Edwards' SAPIEN franchise. First-in-human data will be closely watched.
- NCT07343674 — PERFECT Registry (Evolut FX+)
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 500 | Sponsor: Portuguese Association of Interventional Cardiology
- Real-world Portuguese registry evaluating optimal care pathways with the Medtronic Evolut FX+ system.
- NCT06589063 — TAVR in Severe Low-Flow, Low-Gradient AS
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 1,350 | Sponsor: University of Salerno
- Investigating TAVR outcomes in this challenging patient population where diagnosis and indication remain contentious.
- NCT07519161 — Pharmacological Prevention of NOAF After TAVR
- Status: Not yet recruiting | Enrollment: 198 | Sponsor: Shanghai East Hospital
- Comparing metoprolol vs. amiodarone for new-onset AF prevention post-TAVR — addressing a common and clinically meaningful complication.
- NCT07515768 — TAVI Without On-Site Cardiac Surgery (Poland)
- Status: Not yet recruiting | Enrollment: 404 | Sponsor: Medical University of Warsaw
- Multicenter RCT paralleling the Italian TRACS trial — directly relevant to the CMS TAVR NCD reconsideration regarding site-of-service requirements.
- NCT05751577 — TRACS Trial (TAVI ± On-Site Surgery)
- Status: Active, not recruiting | Enrollment: 657 | Sponsor: Azienda USL di Bologna
- Italian RCT testing whether on-site cardiac surgery backup is necessary for TAVI. Results will directly inform site-of-service policy debates.
- NCT06557798 — REdo TAVI Registry
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 550 | Sponsor: Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust
- Comparing redo-TAVI, surgical explantation/AVR, and conservative management for transcatheter valve failure. Critical lifetime management data.
- [LANDMARK] NCT02701283 — Evolut Low Risk (Long-Term Follow-Up)
- Status: Active, not recruiting | Enrollment: 2,223 | Sponsor: Medtronic
- Extended follow-up of the pivotal low-risk TAVR trial. Long-term durability data from this cohort are essential to resolving the TAVI-vs-SAVR debate in younger patients. Last updated March 19, 2026.
- NCT07520656 — Impact of TAVI and MV Repair on Sleep-Disordered Breathing
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 150 | Sponsor: Aristides Plaitis
- Novel investigation of how valve interventions affect sleep-disordered breathing — an underappreciated comorbidity.
- NCT07511673 — Preoperative Dental Screening Before Valve Surgery/TAVI
- Status: Not yet recruiting | Enrollment: 1,300 | Sponsor: Region Skane
- RCT testing whether dental screening reduces infective endocarditis or other complications after valve interventions — addressing a practice pattern with limited evidence.
Mitral Valve — Repair Trials
- [LANDMARK] NCT04198870 — REPAIR-MR (MitraClip vs. Surgery for Primary MR)
- Status: Active, not recruiting | Enrollment: 500 | Sponsor: Abbott Medical Devices
- The definitive trial comparing transcatheter edge-to-edge repair vs. surgical mitral repair for primary MR. Both ACC/AHA and ESC guidelines rate TEER as IIa for high-surgical-risk primary MR — this trial could shift the evidence base for operable patients. Last updated November 2025.
- [LANDMARK] NCT05051033 — PRIMATY (MitraClip vs. Medical Therapy for Secondary MR)
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 450 | Sponsor: Annetine Gelijns
- Tests TEER vs. surgical MV repair for secondary MR — note this includes a surgical arm, making it distinct from COAPT. Critically important for validating the ESC's Class I upgrade for TEER in ventricular SMR. Last updated March 2026.
- [LANDMARK] NCT03706833 — CLASP IID/IIF (PASCAL vs. MitraClip)
- Status: Active, not recruiting | Enrollment: 1,247 | Sponsor: Edwards Lifesciences
- Pivotal head-to-head comparison of Edwards PASCAL vs. Abbott MitraClip for degenerative (IID) and functional (IIF) MR. Updated April 9, 2026. Results will define the TEER competitive landscape.
- NCT04097145 — PASCAL Pivotal Trial
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 870 | Sponsor: Edwards Lifesciences
- Evaluating PASCAL system for both primary and secondary MR pathways. Updated April 6, 2026.
Mitral Valve — Replacement Trials
- [LANDMARK] NCT03242642 — Intrepid TMVR Pivotal
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 1,056 | Sponsor: Medtronic Cardiovascular
- The largest ongoing transcatheter mitral valve replacement trial. Intrepid is Medtronic's lead TMVR platform. Last updated March 31, 2026. TMVR remains early in its development arc compared to TEER — this trial will determine whether replacement can complement or challenge repair approaches.
Tricuspid Valve — Repair Trials
- [LANDMARK] NCT03904147 — TRILUMINATE Pivotal (TriClip for TR)
- Status: Active, not recruiting | Enrollment: 572 | Sponsor: Abbott Medical Devices
- The pivotal trial that, along with Tri.Fr, drove the ESC's Class IIa recommendation for transcatheter TR therapy. Longer-term follow-up continues. CMS's new TTVR NCA is a parallel development — TRILUMINATE established the evidence base for transcatheter TR therapy broadly, even though it evaluated TEER rather than replacement.
Tricuspid Valve — Replacement Trials
- [LANDMARK] NCT04482062 — TRISCEND II (EVOQUE Tricuspid Replacement)
- Status: Active, not recruiting | Enrollment: 864 | Sponsor: Edwards Lifesciences
- The pivotal trial for Edwards EVOQUE TTVR system — directly relevant to today's CMS NCA announcement (CAG-00467N). TRISCEND II showed superiority for symptoms and QoL vs. medical therapy but also higher bleeding and pacemaker rates. Last updated February 2026.
- NCT07516444 — TRIVITA Pivotal (VDyne TTVR vs. EVOQUE)
- Status: Not yet recruiting | Enrollment: 730 | Sponsor: VDyne, Inc.
- [NOTABLE] A new pivotal trial comparing VDyne's TTVR system head-to-head against Edwards EVOQUE — the first device-vs-device RCT in the transcatheter tricuspid replacement space. Enrollment target of 730 patients signals substantial investment. This trial will define the competitive landscape for TTVR if the CMS NCA results in a coverage pathway.
- NCT07516145 — Robotic Transjugular TTVR
- Status: Recruiting | Enrollment: 10 | Sponsor: Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong
- Early feasibility of robotic-assisted transjugular TTVR — a novel delivery approach that could address access challenges in the tricuspid space.
Other Relevant Trials
- NCT05372627 — NHLBI-Emory Advanced Cardiac CT Reconstruction
- Status: Not yet recruiting | Enrollment: 1,000 | Sponsor: NHLBI
- Advanced CT reconstruction techniques with implications for pre-procedural TAVR planning. Updated April 9, 2026.
- NCT03152773 — MRI-Guided Heart Catheterization
- Status: Suspended | Enrollment: 22 | Sponsor: NHLBI
- MRI fluoroscopy with passive guidewires for cardiac catheterization — suspended, reflecting the technical challenges of MRI-guided structural interventions.
NHLBI-Emory Advanced Cardiac CT Reconstruction
Edwards PASCAL CLASP IID/IIF Pivotal Clinical Trial
Impact of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation and Mitral Valve Repair on Sleep-Disordered Breathing
STAR Trial (Siegel Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Aortic Stenosis)
Pharmacological Intervention to Prevent NOAF After TAVR
Regulatory & Policy
CMS Reconsiders TAVR National Coverage (CAG-00430R2)
[NOTABLE] The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has opened a reconsideration of the TAVR National Coverage Determination (CAG-00430R2). The current NCD, last updated in 2019, mandates TAVR be performed at hospitals meeting specific volume and infrastructure requirements, including the presence of a cardiac surgery program. Any revision could address several active debates: site-of-service requirements (two ongoing trials — TRACS and a Polish counterpart — are randomizing TAVI with vs. without on-site surgery), coverage for emerging indications (moderate AS with HF, asymptomatic severe AS per EARLY TAVR data), and updated risk-stratification requirements.
Clinical and market impact: A liberalized NCD could significantly expand the number of US sites performing TAVR, increase procedural volumes, and potentially open coverage for indications not currently supported — a scenario that would benefit device manufacturers but raises quality and safety concerns at lower-volume centers. Conversely, CMS could tighten requirements in response to expanding indications. We will track this closely.
CMS Opens First NCA for Transcatheter Tricuspid Valve Replacement (CAG-00467N)
[NOTABLE] In what may be the most significant regulatory development for the tricuspid space in the US, CMS has initiated a National Coverage Analysis for transcatheter tricuspid valve replacement (CAG-00467N). This is the first-ever US NCA for TTVR, reflecting the maturation of the evidence base — particularly the TRISCEND II pivotal trial of the Edwards EVOQUE system and the broader body of evidence (TRILUMINATE for TEER, Tri.Fr) that drove the 2025 ESC to grant Class IIa status to transcatheter TV therapy.
Editorial perspective: This NCA is a watershed moment for the tricuspid space. The 2020 ACC/AHA guidelines did not address transcatheter TR therapy at all — the trials hadn't read out. Now CMS is formally evaluating TTVR coverage, which could create a reimbursement pathway that fundamentally changes how severe TR is managed in the US. However, the evidence base for TTVR specifically (as opposed to TEER) remains relatively thin. TRISCEND II showed symptom and QoL benefits but also higher bleeding and pacemaker rates. The CMS review will need to grapple with whether the benefit-risk profile justifies national coverage, or whether coverage with evidence development (CED) — requiring registry enrollment — is more appropriate. Edwards Lifesciences stands as the primary beneficiary of a favorable determination.
JenaValve received FDA approval
Trilogy system approval
FDA approval for its Trilogy system
JenaValve FDA approval: Trilogy system for severe aortic regurgitation
Development and cross-site validation of machine-learning models for diagnosis and prognosis of stable angina with and without obstructive coronary artery disease: a study protocol.
INTRODUCTION: Angina with no obstructive coronary artery disease (ANOCA) affects millions and is frequently under-recognised because diagnostic pathways and risk tools predominantly target obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). This protocol describes shared methods for two machine-learning (ML) studies: (1) differentiating ANOCA from stable angina with obstructive CAD and (2) predicting long-term mortality among patients with ANOCA and obstructive CAD. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will develop and cross-site validate ML classification models using a multicentre retrospective cohort drawn from the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease registry and institutional datasets from the University of Ottawa Heart Institute and the University Health Network. Eligible participants are adults (≥18 years) undergoing initial cardiac catheterisation for chest pain/anginal equivalents since 1995, excluding prior revascularisation, major structural heart disease and predefined non-anginal indications. Outcomes are (1) ANOCA (0% to <50% stenosis) versus obstructive CAD (≥50% stenosis) and (2) 1, 3 and 5-year mortality, modelled separately for ANOCA and obstructive CAD.Model development will use nested cross-validation with stratified k-fold inner-loop tuning and leave-one-site-out cross-validation for repeated external validation. Candidate predictors will be harmonised across sites, filtered for missingness and refined using expert/directed acyclic graph-guided selection plus Boruta and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. Preprocessing includes appropriate encoding, missing-data imputation (multivariate imputation by chained equations) and feature scaling. Algorithms will include elastic-net logistic regression, random forest, LightGBM and multilayer perceptron models; hyperparameters will be optimised via Bayesian optimisation. Performance and threshold tuning will be reported. Explainability and subgroup fairness will be assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations. Final models will be deployed as a web-based clinical risk calculator. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained from the University of Calgary and the University Health Network (#24-5916). Analyses will use deidentified data in secure environments; only aggregate results will be reported. Findings will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications, conferences and a web-based calculator.
Financial Analysis
Valve Industry Performance
Edwards Lifesciences
Medtronic
Abbott
Boston Scientific
Anteris Technologies
The structural heart device sector continues to face macroeconomic headwinds even as clinical and regulatory catalysts accumulate. The stark divergence in 6-month stock performance — Edwards up 6.7%, Anteris up 13%, but Abbott down 23% and Boston Scientific down 35% — reflects how investor sentiment is being shaped by company-specific factors well beyond structural heart. Abbott's decline is driven by broader portfolio concerns including litigation exposure, while Boston Scientific's dramatic selloff reflects valuation compression in a high-multiple medtech stock amid tariff uncertainty and sector rotation.
The CMS actions announced today are material for Edwards, which derives approximately 40% of revenue from TAVR. A favorable TTVR NCA outcome would open an entirely new reimbursement category. Edwards' upcoming April 22 earnings call will be the first opportunity for management to comment publicly on both the TAVR NCD reconsideration and the TTVR NCA. With the stock trading at 23.5x forward earnings — well below its historical premium — any positive regulatory signal could catalyze re-rating. Conversely, Medtronic's structural heart business (Evolut FX+, Intrepid TMVR) operates within a diversified portfolio that dilutes the impact of any single regulatory action, though the Evolut franchise would benefit from TAVR NCD liberalization.
The small-cap/pre-revenue segment tells its own story. Anteris Technologies, pursuing CE Mark and a pivotal US trial for its DurAVR single-piece TAVR valve, has gained 13% over six months as its clinical program advances — though its A$0.8B market cap and negative forward P/E reflect execution risk. Private companies including JenaValve (aortic regurgitation focus), Meril Life Sciences (Myval, validated in the LANDMARK trial), and VDyne (TTVR, TRIVITA pivotal trial just registered) represent the next wave of competitive pressure.

